Goldman Sachs says GDP could fall 24 percent in second quarter
The U.S. economy may have entered a recession and Americans could see the economy shrink by an annualized 6 percent in the first quarter and an astonishing 24 percent in the second quarter, according to a new projection from Goldman Sachs.
“Over the last few days, social distancing measures have shut down normal life in much of the US,” the analysis said.
“News reports point to a sudden surge in layoffs and a collapse in spending, both of which appear to be historic in size and speed. We are therefore making further large downward revisions to our economic forecast,” it added.
The analysis forecasted that the economy would bound back to an annualized 12 percent growth rate in the third quarter and 10 percent in the final quarter. The bounceback, however, would still leave the overall 2020 economy 3.8 percent smaller than last year.
Meanwhile, unemployment would rocket from a 50-year low of 3.5 percent to a whopping 9 percent, rivaling rates not seen since the Great Recession, when unemployment peaked at 10 percent in 2009.
The analysis was based on high-frequency spending indicators and anecdotes of falling revenue in press reports.
Its projections found that hotels, food service and car rentals would have the largest effect on gross domestic product, followed distantly by sports and entertainment. An increase in output from hospital service and outpatient care would mildly blunt the expected fall in economic growth.
Goldman Sachs joins the likes of Bank of America, S&P Global and JPMorgan Chase in predicting that the U.S. has already begun a recession.