OVERNIGHT FINANCE: Biz backs Obama on trade; Volcker wants shakeup

TOMORROW STARTS TONIGHT: BUSINESS GROUPS FIGHT BACK AGAINST Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenThe Hill's Morning Report - Dems to go-it-alone on infrastructure as bipartisan plan falters Democratic patience runs out on bipartisan talks NYC progressives anxiously watch Maya Wiley's ascent MORE ON TRADE. In perhaps their most cohesive effort yet, the business community is pushing back hard against what they see as liberal and labor groups "mischaracterizing" President Obama's trade agenda.

They take particular issue with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and others who have sought to portray Obama's bipartisan trade effort as little more than a corporate give-away that'd tilt the playing field in favor of big business, crushing blue-collar workers along the way.


In a letter to be sent to lawmakers this week that was first obtained by The Hill, more than 60 business groups (yep, 60, count 'em!) made the case the Obama's trade policy would help businesses of all sizes by holding foreign countries accountable to more stringent regulations. My latest for The Hill:

"Business groups are defending the dispute settlement boards that would be included in trade agreements being negotiated by the Obama administration. In a letter to lawmakers on Monday, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Manufacturers and more than 60 other groups voiced support for the boards, which have been lambasted by organized labor and the left."

-- WHAT THE LETTER SAYS: "These ISDS panels never have overturned and never can overturn any country's laws or regulations... ISDS is a strong enforcement tool that helps ensure that American businesses and their workers will be treated fairly overseas." Story: http://bit.ly/1yKisRQ

THIS IS OVERNIGHT FINANCE. I'll be on with Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Network TONIGHT at 8 p.m. ET. Tune in. It was brutal watching the Nats beat my Phillies yesterday, but hey -- Rome wasn't built in a day. Tweet: @kevcirilli; email: kcirilli@thehill.com; and subscribe: http://thehill.com/signup/48

Forget about White House Correspondents' Dinner. It's Ex-Im Annual Conference week! ...

DAYS UNTIL EX-IM SHUTS DOWN: 72. And more than 50 Tea Party groups blasted the bank in their latest letter to lawmakers. My story: More than 50 conservative groups sent a letter to lawmakers on Monday urging them to oppose reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank. The letter comes as Congress is grappling with whether to reauthorize its charter, which expires on June 30. The letter is perhaps the most cohesive effort to date on behalf of Tea Party groups in opposing the bank.

"Eliminating the Export-Import Bank would level the playing field and allow U.S. companies to compete for business on their merits rather than the strength of their political ties to the bank," the groups wrote in the letter, obtained first by The Hill: http://bit.ly/1ElnvdH

-- Meanwhile, Shawn Donnan reports in FT: "The US risks compounding the mistake it made by not joining a new China-backed Asian infrastructure bank if Republicans in Congress go through with a threat to shut down the country's export credit agency, GE's top international executive has warned. John Rice, who oversees GE's international operations as the industrial giant's vice-chairman, told the Financial Times in an interview he believed that Washington's decision not to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank as a founding member alongside China had been a mistake." http://on.ft.com/1G1pOO8

THE STORM AHEAD: FED'S "SUPER TAPER TANTRUM." Brace yourselves. Steve Goldstein for MarketWatch: "It's what is feared by markets and by Federal Reserve officials alike -- a rerun of the May 2013 taper tantrum, when yields spiked higher on the suggestion of an imminent reduction in bond purchases.

"In a new research piece, Deutsche Bank's Joseph LaVorgna counts five episodes since 1994 when the yield on the 10-year Treasury note moved substantially higher because of a change in expectations on the likely path of Fed policy. 'If history is a guide, a backup in Treasury yields could be both swift and violent, with most of the move occurring over a short period of time, generally within two months,' he says, warning of what he calls a 'super taper tantrum.'" http://on.mktw.net/1O8NFoG

VOLCKER FIGHTS BACK: FORMER FED CHAIR WANTS TO OVERHAUL REGULATORY SYSTEM. We were at The National Press Club this morning for the scoop: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker is pushing to reform Washington's regulatory landscape.

Volcker unveiled a series of wide-ranging, sweeping proposals on Monday that would overhaul how regulators oversee banks and financial institutions on Wall Street and Main Street. Volcker, who made the pitch with his organization The Volcker Alliance in D.C., said the reforms are needed to fix an outdated regulatory structure.

-- VOLCKER'S  WISH-LIST: The 87-year-old has an ambitious agenda that he's injecting into the regulatory landscape at a time when there's about eight potential and already declared GOP 2016 presidential candidates looking for new ideas. Here are some of his ideas:

1.) He wants to combine the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to better streamline the regulatory process.

2.) He'd also eliminate the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).

3.) He wants create a special commission within the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) to designate financial institutions as "systemically important financial institutions" (SIFIs). My story: http://bit.ly/1JnNpLQ

BUDGET WATCH, via Rebecca Shabad: "Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) lobbied Republicans Monday against including language in a final budget agreement that could potentially unravel the 2014 farm bill. At a public meeting of the House-Senate budget conference committee, Stabenow applauded Senate Republicans for not including a reconciliation instruction to the Senate Agriculture Committee in the budget they adopted in late March.

"The House budget, by contrast, issues reconciliation instructions to 13 authorizing committees, including the House Agriculture Committee, which has jurisdiction over food stamps, nutrition programs and resources for farmers. Republicans are now negotiating a deal that merges the two resolutions." http://bit.ly/1bmjhpB

TOP ECONOMIC FEAR: AFFORDING COLLEGE. Shabad: "The fear of being unable to afford college tuition for their children is the top financial concern for parents, according to a new Gallup survey released on Monday. Seventy-three percent of parents whose children are younger than 18 worry about paying for college, the poll found." http://bit.ly/1yKj89O

FINANCIAL CRISES SPUTTER TO AN END. Peter Henning for DealBook: "Yogi Berra once said that 'it ain't over 'til it's over.' Unlike the final out or winning run in a baseball game, determining when cases arising from the 2008 financial crisis will end is a bit harder to discern. But the resolution of two cases last week clearly indicates that enforcement actions for conduct leading up to the crisis are pretty much done, with no real finding of liability for violations." http://nyti.ms/1J3JK9p

MORGAN STANLEY EXEC SHADES COMPETITORS. Maureen Farrell for WSJ: "On her final conference call as Morgan Stanley's chief financial officer, Ruth Porat responded to questions about the effects of regulatory changes on the banking system and her decision to leave Wall Street for Silicon Valley by at first praising the government for the changes she's seen.

"She said that she and other executives at Morgan Stanley understood regulators intentions and felt the changes they were making were 'needed.' The firm's executives, she said, 'are proud of the changes we've made' since the financial crisis. She contrasted Morgan Stanley's response to the responses of other executives who were making 'those changes kicking and screaming.'" http://on.wsj.com/1IyXy8r

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