Overnight Finance: Study says Trump would cause recession | GOP wants Obama out of 'Brexit' fight | Busy week for Yellen | Republicans target IRS power

STUDY: TRUMP POLICIES WOULD SINK ECONOMY: Donald TrumpDonald John TrumpFederal prosecutor speaks out, says Barr 'has brought shame' on Justice Dept. Former Pence aide: White House staffers discussed Trump refusing to leave office Progressive group buys domain name of Trump's No. 1 Supreme Court pick MORE's economic proposals would isolate the United States, hurt its economic growth, increase the federal deficit and cost millions of American jobs, according to new analysis.

The grim findings from Moody's Analytics state that the nation's wealthiest would benefit the most from the presumptive GOP presidential nominee's proposals, while middle- and lower-class Americans would be hurt the most.


"The economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump's economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office," the report said. The Hill's Peter Schroeder explains how: http://bit.ly/28ITLey.

GOP SENATORS TO OBAMA: STAY OUT OF BREXIT: Three Republican Senators are calling out President Obama for weighing in on the United Kingdom's upcoming vote on whether to leave the European Union.

Sens. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzCrenshaw looms large as Democrats look to flip Texas House seat SCOTUS confirmation in the last month of a close election? Ugly The Hill's Morning Report - Sponsored by Facebook - Trump previews SCOTUS nominee as 'totally brilliant' MORE (Texas), Mike LeeMichael (Mike) Shumway LeeBipartisan representatives demand answers on expired surveillance programs McConnell shores up GOP support for coronavirus package McConnell tries to unify GOP MORE (Utah) and Jeff SessionsJefferson (Jeff) Beauregard SessionsRoy Moore sues Alabama over COVID-19 restrictions GOP set to release controversial Biden report Trump's policies on refugees are as simple as ABCs MORE (Ala.) warned Obama in a Monday letter not to try to influence Great Britain's Thursday referendum to stay in the EU or leave, dubbed "Brexit."

The senators wrote that the U.S. should take "no official position" on the referendum, objecting to comments Obama made about it in April.

"Regardless of the outcome of the United Kingdom's referendum," the senators wrote, "we firmly believe that the United States and the United Kingdom should continue to work closely together for the benefit of all." I'll tell you what set them off here: http://bit.ly/28N1ybI.

YELLEN TESTIFIES BEFORE SENATE BANKING TOMORROW: Federal Reserve Board Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be back on Capitol Hill on the heels of an unexpected economic dip. Yellen is scheduled to make her first of two yearly visits to Congress when she testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Yellen will outline the economic outlook and monetary policy for the Fed, which delayed an expected interest rate hike on Wednesday.

The Fed raised rates last December for the first time in almost a decade, and hinted at another hike this month. That plan was quashed after a dismal May jobs report.

HAPPY MONDAY and welcome to Overnight Finance, where we're sizzling on the first day of summer. I'm Sylvan Lane, and here's your nightly guide to everything affecting your bills, bank account and bottom line.

Tonight's highlights include the return of a controversial anti-LGBT amendment to a spending bill, provisions aimed at the IRS and more revelations about Donald Trump's taxes.

See something I missed? Let me know at slane@thehill.com or tweet me @SylvanLane. And if you like your newsletter, you can subscribe to it here: http://bit.ly/1NxxW2N.


  • Senate Banking Committee: Hearing to examine the semiannual monetary report to Congress, with Federal Reserve Board Chair Janet Yellen, 10 a.m. http://1.usa.gov/1WRsb3p.
  • Senate Health, Labor, Education and Pensions Subcommittee on Health and Retirement: Hearings to examine small business retirement pooling, focusing on examining open multiple employer plans, 2:30 p.m. http://1.usa.gov/1sJKZVN.

HOUSE GOP OFFERS AMENDMENTS TO CURB IRS POWER: House Republicans have submitted a number of amendments to a spending bill that would place restrictions on the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and its top officials.

The amendments were offered to the financial services and general government appropriations bill, which provides funding for the IRS, the Securities and Exchange Commission and other agencies.

Several amendments were offered to eliminate or reduce the salary of the IRS commissioner. They come as some House Republicans are pushing for IRS Commissioner John Koskinen to be impeached. The Hill's Naomi Jagoda tells us about them: http://bit.ly/28JuLl0.

DEM AGAIN SEEKS VOTE ON LGBT MEASURE: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) is again pushing a measure to prevent federal contractors from discriminating on the basis of sexual orientation or gender identity to another spending bill slated for the House floor this week.

House GOP leaders blocked a vote on Maloney's amendment last week, only two days after a mass shooting at a gay nightclub in Orlando.

The same outcome is likely again this week, as the House considers a spending bill for the Treasury Department and other financial regulatory agencies.

The House Rules Committee, which decides how legislation is considered on the floor, will meet on Tuesday to determine which amendments to the spending bill will get votes. The Hill's Cristina Marcos brings us up to speed: http://bit.ly/28JCQZL.

US TRADE CHIEF OPTIMISTIC ABOUT PACIFIC DEAL: U.S. Trade Representative Michael FromanMichael B.G. FromanOn The Money: Sanders unveils plan to wipe .6T in student debt | How Sanders plan plays in rivalry with Warren | Treasury watchdog to probe delay of Harriet Tubman bills | Trump says Fed 'blew it' on rate decision Democrats give Trump trade chief high marks US trade rep spent nearly M to furnish offices: report MORE was optimistic on Monday that Congress would pass a sweeping Pacific Rim trade agreement this year.

Froman said broad support across the U.S. economy for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) -- including agriculture, high-tech and manufacturing industries -- is bolstering the Obama administration's efforts to convince lawmakers to approve the 12-nation deal before President Obama leaves office.

"That support is beginning to trickle through to members of Congress," he said Monday at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

"I'm spending a lot of my time, when I'm not traveling abroad, up on the Hill talking to members of Congress and the good news is that as they dig into the details and they see what's in it for their constituents, which is their primary driving force behind their decision-making, they're seeing the potential, the positive upside and what's at risk in not getting it done," he said. The Hill's Vicki Needham has more: http://bit.ly/28N27CI.

REPORT: NYC RESCINDS TRUMP TAX BREAK: New York City increased Donald Trump's tax bill over the weekend, after removing a tax break he received that is designed for people who make $500,000 or less per year, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.

A spokeswoman for the city finance department told the newspaper she could not discuss whether Trump is eligible for the property-tax credit and said three year's worth of tax breaks were removed after a request from Trump's lawyer.

Trump's tax bill now increases by $1,046.41, the WSJ reported: http://bit.ly/28ITEPS.

TRUMP MAY HAVE PAID LITTLE TO NO TAXES IN EARLY '90s: Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump may have paid little or no income taxes during two years in the early 1990s, Politico reported.

At that time, Trump's hotel and casino holdings were struggling and the businessman was making deals to stay afloat. Lenders were canceling some or all of Trump's debt, which may have led Trump to realize taxable gains.

However, Trump's business losses were so large that they could offset the taxes, Politico reported Friday, citing documents from New Jersey gambling authorities.

In 1991 Trump had a net operating loss carryforward that was likely to cause him to owe little or no taxes on the gains. In 1993, the billionaire's loss carryforward was more than enough to prevent him from having to pay taxes on the gains, Politico reported. Our Naomi Jagoda explains: http://bit.ly/28JUU9M.

LAWMAKERS CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL BOEING SALE TO IRAN: Two House Republicans are expressing concern over Boeing's tentative agreement to sell about 100 commercial planes to Iran, warning that the deal could have serious national security implications.

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) and Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.), who holds a seat on the Ways and Means Committee, said that U.S. businesses should not take part in "weaponizing" Iran's regime.

"We strongly oppose the potential sale of military-fungible products to terrorism's central supplier," the lawmakers wrote in a letter sent on Thursday to Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg.

If approved, the plane purchase would represent a significant deal between a U.S. company and Tehran following the easing of trade sanctions in January. Vicki Needham explains: http://bit.ly/28IUOuI.

Write us with tips, suggestions and news: slane@thehill.com, vneedham@thehill.com; pschroeder@thehill.com, and njagoda@thehill.com. Follow us on Twitter: @SylvanLane,  @VickofTheHill; @PeteSchroeder; and @NJagoda.