On The Money: Economy adds 266K jobs in strong November | Lawmakers sprint to avoid shutdown | Appropriators to hold crucial talks this weekend | Trump asks Supreme Court to halt Deutsche Bank subpoenas

On The Money: Economy adds 266K jobs in strong November | Lawmakers sprint to avoid shutdown | Appropriators to hold crucial talks this weekend | Trump asks Supreme Court to halt Deutsche Bank subpoenas
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THE BIG DEAL--Economy adds 266K jobs in November, blowing past expectations: The U.S. added 266,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported Friday, blowing past expectations as the American economy continues to push through a global slump.

The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5 percent during November, while the labor force participation rate also stayed even at 63.2 percent. The October jobs gain was also revised up by 28,000 jobs to 156,000, while the September jobs gain was revised up 18,000 jobs to 193,000.

"Employment gains blew the consensus and our expectations out of the water," wrote Sophia Koropeckyj, managing director for Moody's Analytics, in a Friday research note. "While we expected a reversal of October's auto industry losses, if we subtract that anomaly, payroll gains still exceeded 200,000 in November."

I break down the stellar report here

  • Economists had projected the U.S. to add roughly 180,000 jobs in November, including a boost of roughly 40,000 General Motors workers that returned to work after a 35-day strike.
  • The end of the GM strike plus strong expansion in the health care, professional and technical services sectors powered the U.S. economy through lags in manufacturing and trade activity.
  • Wage growth also edged up to a 3.1 percent annualized gain, though below the rate economists expect for an economy with such low unemployment.

 

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What it means for 2020: The U.S. economy has remained steady and growing despite a persistent decline in industrial output and exports driven in part by President TrumpDonald John TrumpWarren: Dershowitz presentation 'nonsensical,' 'could not follow it' Bolton told Barr he was concerned Trump did favors for autocrats: report Dershowitz: Bolton allegations would not constitute impeachable offense MORE's trade battles. Slumping economic growth across Europe and Asia has also weighed on U.S. business investment, capital expansion and exports.

  • Trump is banking on low unemployment and ample consumer confidence to maintain the support in industrial midwestern states he will need to secure another term.
  • Incumbent presidents seeking reelection are often closely tied to the success of the U.S. economy, making November's report a useful tool for Republicans making the case for another Trump term.

But while the U.S. has defied expectations of an economic slowdown and earlier fears of a recession, there are still several risks to the economy heading into 2020.

  • Trump is still seeking resolutions to his trade war with China and the escalating battle with the European Union. 
  • The president is set to impose a new tranche of tariffs on more than $100 billion in consumer goods from China on Dec. 15, which could strain household budgets at the start of 2020. 
  • And though the broader job market remains strong, U.S. manufacturing jobs have flatlined throughout the year despite Trump's pledge to revive American factories.

 

LEADING THE DAY

Trump talks spending with key GOP chairman as deadline looms: President Trump spoke on Thursday night with Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard ShelbyRichard Craig ShelbySenate fails to get deal to speed up fight over impeachment rules Roberts under pressure from both sides in witness fight GOP senator on Trump soliciting foreign interference: 'Those are just statements' MORE (R-Ala.) about government funding ahead of the Dec. 20 shutdown deadline. 

A source familiar with the discussion said the president and Shelby had a "productive conversation" about the appropriations process. 

"President Trump was positive and encouraging about working with us to complete our FY20 bills," the source added on Friday. 

 

Why it matters: The conversation comes as lawmakers are in the midst of a flurry of behind-the-scenes negotiations as they try to make progress on the fiscal 2020 funding bills.

With just two weeks until the shutdown deadline, top appropriators are hunkering down for crucial weekend negotiations on tough issues, including President Trump's proposed border wall.

  • The 12 appropriations subcommittees, each of which deal with one of the 12 annual spending bills, are expected to hand their results to the committee's top Republicans and Democrats by day's end, leaving the most contentious issues for the weekend talks. 
  • Lawmakers hinted that leadership would have to work out any remaining issues by the middle of next week in order to avoid kicking the can down the road.

The Hill's Niv Elis previews the sprint to the finish here.

 

ON TAP NEXT WEEK

Tuesday:

  • Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Jay Clayton testifies before the Senate Banking Committee, 10 a.m.
  • The House Financial Services Committee holds a markup of legislation to be determined, 10 a.m. 

Wednesday:

  • The House Agriculture Committee holds a hearing entitled "Review of Credit Conditions: Report from Agricultural Lenders," 2 p.m.
  • The Senate Small Business Committee holds a hearing on the nomination of Jovita Caranza to be administrator of the Small Business Administration.

Thursday:

 

GOOD TO KNOW

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RECAP THE WEEK WITH ON THE MONEY: