Trade wars have cost stock market $5 trillion: Deutsche Bank analysis

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President Trump’s multi-front trade war has cost the stock market $5 trillion in the past 17 months, according to analysis from Deutsche Bank.

“While other factors also arguably played a role, the trade war has been key in preventing a recovery in global growth and keeping U.S. equities range bound. Foregone U.S. equity returns from price appreciation for 17 months are worth $5 trillion,” Binky Chadha, the bank’s chief strategist, wrote in a Friday note to clients obtained by Marketwatch.

{mosads}Chadha added that the cost was similar to that of the European financial crisis in 2011-2012 and the economic shock following the collapse of crude oil prices in 2014-2016.

“In terms of duration, the current episode is still 5-6 months short of those two episodes. But it is notable that the current episode has occurred in a context of significantly stronger U.S. macro and earnings growth and a lower unemployment rate,” Chadha said, adding that the money left on the table is already worth 12 years of the U.S.’s bilateral trade deficit with China. 

The White House is waging a multi-pronged trade war, with the bulk of its tariffs being levied against China.

The Trump administration raised tariffs from 10 percent to 25 percent on $200 billion of Chinese imports. Beijing by targeting $60 billion worth of U.S. agricultural exports and halting purchases of American soybeans. The president also announced Thursday he intends to levy a 5 percent tariff on all Mexican imports unless Mexico City ramps up its efforts to curb illegal border crossings into the U.S. 

The markets were roiled late this week in light of the news of the possible tariffs on Mexico, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropping almost 255 points by Friday morning.

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