Trump administration: 13 million uninsured under GOP health plan


Thirteen million people could become uninsured under the House Republican healthcare plan by 2026, according to an analysis from the Trump administration. 

The analysis, completed by the chief actuary at the Department of Health and Human Services, differs substantially from an analysis of the same bill released last month by the Congressional Budget Office. 

The CBO estimated that at least 23 million people could become uninsured under the American Health Care Act (AHCA) over a decade.

The actuary noted, however, that allowing states to waive out of some ObamaCare regulations could lead to a “deteriorating or possibly failing individual market,” which is similar to a conclusion made in the CBO report. 

“If such actions were implemented, we would expect that the individual market in these areas would destabilize such that premiums for comprehensive coverage for a significant proportion of the population would become unaffordable and the coverage would cease to be offered,” the actuary wrote.

The new report will likely provide fodder for Senate Republicans trying to repeal ObamaCare, some of whom have cast doubt on the accuracy of the CBO report. 

Senate GOP leaders have said they will write their own bill, but may take some ideas from the House bill. 

Other key findings: 

  • 4 million uninsured by 2018 “due to the repeal of the individual mandate,” which requires people buy insurance or pay a fine.
  • The actuary attributes smaller subsidies and declines in eligibility for Medicaid as a reason for 13 million becoming uninsured by 2026.
  • The AHCA would save $328 billion over 10 years.
  • Medicaid enrollment would be 8 million lower, mainly because of the AHCA’s rollback of the ObamaCare Medicaid expansion.
  • Average gross premiums would be 13 percent lower in 2026 under the GOP health plan for people not getting subsidies. 
  • But premiums would be 5 percent higher for people who do get subsidies. 
  • Cost-sharing, like deductibles and co-pays, would be 61 percent higher under the House bill. 
  • Overall, premium costs would depend on the age and income of the enrollee and what state they live in because the House healthcare plan would let states get waivers for two ObamaCare regulations: one that bans insurers from charging sick people more and another that mandates what services insurers must cover. 
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