Five takeaways from ObamaCare repeal’s collapse

Three Republicans dealt what appears to be a final, fatal blow to their party’s ObamaCare repeal effort on Friday morning after a yearslong odyssey that now leaves the GOP in the wilderness.

Here are five takeaways from this morning’s drama and the monthslong Senate repeal fight.

Leadership is ready to move on

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Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzTrump-backed Hagerty wins Tennessee GOP Senate primary The Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's visit to battleground Ohio overshadowed by coronavirus The Hill's Morning Report - Presented by the Air Line Pilots Association - Key 48 hours loom as negotiators push for relief deal MORE (R-Texas) and Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), the chairman of the House Freedom Caucus, were among the conservatives urging their colleagues to keep fighting after the dramatic defeat in the Senate.

“I believe ObamaCare will be repealed,” Cruz told reporters after leaving the Senate chamber following Friday morning’s 49-51 vote.

“On the merits, I think we are quite close. I think there are 45 or 46 votes, and I think we’re a few votes away,” he said.

Meadows said a new effort is underway to write a bill that would include proposals offered by Sens. Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's visit to battleground Ohio overshadowed by coronavirus New polls show tight races for Graham, McConnell Yates spars with GOP at testy hearing MORE (R-S.C.), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Rob PortmanRobert (Rob) Jones PortmanPessimism grows as coronavirus talks go down to the wire Senators holding behind-the-scenes talks on breaking coronavirus package stalemate Overnight Defense: Pompeo pressed on move to pull troops from Germany | Panel abruptly scraps confirmation hearing | Trump meets family of slain soldier MORE (R-Ohio.) and Cruz.

“I just think that we’ve got to regroup and continue to stay involved and find something that has 51 votes in the Senate that we can make work,” Meadows told reporters Friday.

ObamaCare repeal has repeatedly come back from the dead this year, and the “skinny” repeal bill defeated on Friday was just a vote away from passage.

The White House and congressional Republican leaders, however, look ready to move on.

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Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellCoronavirus talks on life support as parties dig in, pass blame Jobs report poised to light fire under COVID-19 talks Overnight Health Care: Ohio governor tests positive for COVID-19 ahead of Trump's visit | US shows signs of coronavirus peak, but difficult days lie ahead | Trump: COVID-19 vaccine may be ready 'right around' Election Day MORE (R-Ky.) in a floor speech said it was time to switch focus, while Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanBudowsky: Why I back Kennedy, praise Markey Democratic super PAC quotes Reagan in anti-Trump ad set to air on Fox News: 'Are you better off?' Trump lashes out at Reagan Foundation after fundraising request MORE (R-Wis.) signaled a pivot to tax reform.

“We have so much work still to do, and the House will continue to focus on issues that are important to the American people,” Ryan said. “At the top of that list is cutting taxes for middle class families and fixing our broken tax code. I’m glad that members will now take time to hear directly from those they represent and make the case for historic tax reform that we intend to pursue in the fall.”

Trump in a tweet said ObamaCare would “implode,” which might bring Democrats to the bargaining table. He did not urge a tireless new effort.

Sen. Roy BluntRoy Dean BluntSkepticism grows over Friday deadline for coronavirus deal GOP expects Senate to be in session next week without coronavirus deal House Republicans introduce legislation to give states 0 million for elections MORE (R-Mo.), a member of leadership, acknowledged the political reality.

“I think this ends this discussion for a little while,” he said.

Closed process haunts McConnell

Senate Republicans received flack from the beginning of their effort for closing the process to Democrats and keeping their work behind closed doors.

In May, McConnell convened a working group of 13 senators for twice-a-week meetings to discuss a reform plan. No female senators were initially included, and the group leaned toward conservatives and McConnell allies.

Democrats skewered the closed-door process, noting Republicans had criticized their party over the issue when ObamaCare was approved in 2010 — after months of open Senate hearings at which the party pleaded for centrist GOP support.

Worse for McConnell was that the criticism was echoed by Republicans, including two women — Sens. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiOn The Money: Pessimism grows as coronavirus talks go down to the wire | Jobs report poised to light fire under COVID-19 talks | Tax preparers warn unemployment recipients could owe IRS Pessimism grows as coronavirus talks go down to the wire Hillicon Valley: Facebook removes Trump post | TikTok gets competitor | Lawmakers raise grid safety concerns MORE (Alaska) and Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsThe Hill's Campaign Report: Trump's visit to battleground Ohio overshadowed by coronavirus New polls show tight races for Graham, McConnell McConnell goes hands-off on coronavirus relief bill MORE (Maine) — who voted against the final bill.

The third senator to vote no on Friday morning, Sen. John McCainJohn Sidney McCainCNN's Ana Navarro to host Biden roundtable on making 'Trump a one-term president' Mark Kelly clinches Democratic Senate nod in Arizona Prominent conservatives question Jerry Falwell Jr. vacation photo MORE (R-Ariz.), had urged a return to regular order just days before his return to the Senate after a brain cancer diagnosis.

“We’ve been spinning our wheels on too many important issues because we keep trying to find a way to win without help from across the aisle,” McCain said.

Dems win by staying united

Democrats face a difficult political map in next year’s midterm elections, when they will be defending 25 seats, including two Independents who caucus with Democrats, compared to eight for Republicans.

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That should have given the GOP an opportunity to divide the minority party by making Democratic senators in red states up for reelection feel pressure to back a reform bill.

Instead, it was Republicans who wavered.

Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerOn The Trail: Democrats plan to hammer Trump on Social Security, Medicare Lobbying World Democrats spend big to put Senate in play MORE (Nev.), considered the most vulnerable GOP senator up for reelection, faced pressure to oppose the bill from Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval (R). So did Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who faced opposition from his state’s Republican governor, John Kasich.

While Heller and Portman voted in favor of the final bill, their early opposition to various repeal-and-replace measures delayed McConnell’s efforts.

President Trump’s low approval ratings and the unpopularity of the GOP measures helped Democrats. So did the rising popularity in polls of ObamaCare.

The results were a victory for Senate Minority Leader Charles SchumerChuck SchumerCoronavirus talks on life support as parties dig in, pass blame Senate Democrats push to include free phone calls for incarcerated people in next relief package Trump backs plan to give airlines another billion in aid MORE (D-N.Y.), who throughout the process preached Democratic unity.

As McCain cast his vote to kill the legislation, Schumer could be seen on camera waving his arm, urging his members not to cheer. The moment highlighted his control over the caucus.

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“Our caucus was so united. Everyone from Bernie SandersBernie SandersOn The Money: Pessimism grows as coronavirus talks go down to the wire | Jobs report poised to light fire under COVID-19 talks | Tax preparers warn unemployment recipients could owe IRS Senators introduce bill to block Trump armed drone sale measure Sanders offers bill to tax billionaires' wealth gains during pandemic MORE to Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinHillicon Valley: Facebook removes Trump post | TikTok gets competitor | Lawmakers raise grid safety concerns OVERNIGHT ENERGY: Court cancels shutdown of Dakota Access Pipeline | US could avoid 4.5M early deaths by fighting climate change, study finds | Officials warn of increasing cyber threats to critical infrastructure during pandemic Officials warn of increasing cyber threats to critical infrastructure during pandemic MORE was on the same page,” he said Friday morning.

Senate Republican divisions run deep.

Centrist and conservative Republicans were never on the same page, and McConnell’s efforts to win over one side repeatedly cost him votes from the other.

Medicaid quickly emerged as one of the thorniest issues. The Senate GOP bill included deep cuts to Medicaid and a three-year transition to end extra federal funds for Medicaid expansion.

The 20 GOP senators who represent states that expanded Medicaid worried about thousands of their constituents losing coverage. Kasich and Sandoval were loud, politically powerful voices on the issue.

GOP centrists ultimately won that battle, in that the skinny repeal bill included no Medicaid cuts. Conservatives were willing to back the skinny bill with the hope it could be improved in a conference with the Senate.

Yet it was hard to see how something could emerge from that conference that would serve both sides of the debate.

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In the end, Republicans couldn’t get the 51 votes necessary to try, as three Republican senators wouldn’t support the skinny bill.

Trump threats backfire

Trump tried to up the pressure on Murkowski after she voted against three critical healthcare votes in one week.

“Senator @lisamurkowski of the Great State of Alaska really let the Republicans, and our country, down yesterday. Too bad!”

Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke called Murkowski and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) on Wednesday and threatened to withhold federal support for key economic development projects in the state if Murkowski didn’t line up to support the GOP’s healthcare plans.

The threats backfired badly.

Murkowski didn’t change her vote, and she was reportedly furious about the Zinke call. As the chairwoman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, she has power over the Interior Department’s budget, and it’s possible the pressure could have long-term negative effects for Zinke and Trump.