
The split votes of three likely 2016 GOP candidates on a failed National Security Agency reform bill underscore a rift in the Republican Party that could spill over into the presidential primaries.
Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzNoem touts South Dakota coronavirus response, knocks lockdowns in CPAC speech Sunday shows preview: 2024 hopefuls gather at CPAC; House passes coronavirus relief; vaccine effort continues Texas attorney general hits links with Trump before CPAC appearance MORE (Texas) was one of only four Republicans to vote Tuesday night in support of legislation to end the government's bulk collection of Americans' phone records. Sens. Rand Paul
Randal (Rand) Howard PaulOvernight Health Care: 50 million coronavirus vaccines given | Pfizer news | Biden health nominees Rand Paul criticized for questioning of transgender health nominee Haley isolated after Trump fallout MORE (Ky.) and Marco Rubio
Marco Antonio RubioWatch live: Day 2 at CPAC DeSantis derides 'failed Republican establishment' at CPAC The Hill's 12:30 Report - Presented by Facebook - Divided House on full display MORE (Fla.) both helped stall the bill — but for vastly different reasons.
The 2016 campaign could give the potential candidates another platform to highlight their differing stances in the simmering debate over government surveillance.
"So I think the question is whether someone like Sen. Paul looks at the field and sees surveillance, and national security more generally, as a way to actually distance himself from the more moderate elements of the Republican Party," added Vladeck, who heads the Just Security blog.
Civil liberties advocates are hopeful the 2016 election will place a sharper focus on surveillance. It will be the first presidential race since the extent of NSA spying was revealed by the leaks from Edward Snowden.
"Because of that world, I don't think this is an issue that candidates in either party are going to be able to avoid. They are going to face very real questions," said Neema Singh Guliani, legislative counsel for the American Civil Liberties Union.
Senate Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy

The legislation would have ended the government's bulk collection and storage of Americans' phone and other business records, and would have established a privacy advocate to argue in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, among other things.
On opposite ends of the spectrum, Paul opposed the bill by saying he wanted it to go further to scrap portions of the Patriot Act used to justify the NSA's surveillance program, while Rubio maintained the program is a critical tool in fighting terrorism.
The tension between Paul and the more hawkish wing of the GOP has sprung up at different times in the past year, and could be used against the Kentucky senator.
For example, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), another potential 2016 contender, blasted the new "strain of libertarianism" in the party last year as "dangerous," pointing to Paul and others.
Rubio has adopted a similar stance, positioning himself with Republicans like Sen. John McCain

"If god forbid any horrifying event like that were to happen, the first question we will be asked is why didn't we know about it and why didn't we prevent it," Rubio said on the floor ahead of the vote this week.
On the other hand, Paul's stance Tuesday alienated him from both sides of the debate. Even many civil liberties advocates said Paul, who has sued over the NSA program, should have voted to advance the bill.
"I think in this case, he made the wrong choice," the ACLU's Guliani said. "But I think me and other people will be looking to say now that he's said, ‘look we want a stronger bill,’ what is his path forward and can he deliver?"
The GOP-led Congress will have to debate reform again next summer when portions of the Patriot Act are set to expire. Observers note a number of developments can happen before the primary gets underway. They point out no one had heard of Edward Snowden before last June.
It is still unclear what role NSA reform will play in the GOP primary and the presidential race more broadly. The issue was not a major part of any Senate campaign in 2014.
"There is clearly a constituency for it, but at least thus far, that consistency has not been powerful enough to set the terms of the Republican agenda," Vladeck said.
A Pew Research poll in September found Republican priorities on civil liberties and national security had flipped since the Snowden leaks last year. The poll was conducted as the rise of ISIS dominated headlines.
Rubio's position would then appear to be in line with the average GOP voter and other possible Republican presidential candidates — aside from Paul and Cruz. But Vladeck said open primaries and other election dynamics muddy that advantage.
"The complicating factor is: There are plenty of cases where the median GOP primary voter won't necessary be the controlling factor in a primary election," he said.